This weekend, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to the CDMX Arena in Mexico City, Mexico for an exciting event: UFC Mexico City. Before diving into this new spectacle, I have to admit that UFC London didn’t quite hit the mark. The fights dragged on without much excitement, and my predictions were way off! It was a bit of a confidence shaker, but I hold on to one dependable trend in combat sports: when you pack a card with Mexican fighters in their home country, expect fireworks. We have some established fighters like Brandon Moreno and Drew Dober, who always bring high-caliber action to the octagon. So, here I am, ready to revive my belief! This card can’t disappoint, can it?
Now, let’s break down the first three main card fights before we get to Joe Pyfer versus Kelvin Gastelum.
Bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales
Rosas Jr. is riding high with three consecutive wins, while Morales is on the back foot, having lost his last two bouts. Rosas Jr. is known for his relentless pace, although maintaining it has been a challenge. Nonetheless, we’re in for some fascinating grapples.
At just 20 years old, Rosas Jr. is stepping into his sixth UFC fight. His wrestling and grappling are his strongest suits, but his kickboxing skills have shown marked improvements. His recent 15-minute outing was a testament to his better, albeit still developing, pace management.
Morales, a seasoned pro lacking some of Rosas Jr.’s natural gifts, is known for his solid boxing and mean front choke game. He’s now in a role where he tests the up-and-comers, but another loss could jeopardize his UFC stint.
I like Morales for his utilization of available tools, but the disparity in strength and speed with Rosas Jr. is substantial. Morales’ historical challenge with long-range kicks plays right into Rosas Jr.’s strengths. Chances are, Rosas Jr. will dominate the early rounds with his range and top control. Morales could swing things in the final round, but he’ll need a big finish to pull off a win.
Prediction: Rosas Jr. by decision
Bantamweight: David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
Martinez is stepping into the ring after seven straight wins, contrasting Oliveira’s two losses. The key factor here is Martinez’s potential as a young prospect. We’re looking at a classic striker versus grappler situation.
Martinez, once again, embraces the striker’s role. At 26, he already carries nine knockouts under his belt and is relentless in trying to break down opponents. On the flip side, Oliveira boasts 11 submission victories but has struggled to bring opponents to the ground in the UFC.
Let’s be upfront: this fight seems tailored to boost the Mexican prospect. Martinez, the "Black Spartan," is not only younger but also more athletic and powerful, outshining Oliveira in their respective competitive histories. While there’s a margin for error for Martinez, with Oliveira possibly seizing any loose moments, the odds lean towards Martinez delivering a knockdown blow.
Prediction: Martinez by knockout
Flyweight: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
Rodriguez enters following a memorable UFC debut at Noche UFC, whereas Borjas is grappling with a two-loss streak. The X-factor here is Rodriguez’s greater experience. Expect some intense grappling scenes.
Though Rodriguez entered with fanfare, his battle against Osbourne tempered expectations a bit. Despite needing polish in his stand-up game, his ground game is solid. Meanwhile, Borjas had the tough luck of starting his UFC run against strong competitors like Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa. He stands as an active striker with commendable jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling has let him down, allowing his opponents to dictate fights.
A problem in wrestling can overshadow numerous skill positives. Even if Borjas does have a striking edge, it won’t matter if the wrestling dominates the bout. Given Rodriguez’s skill set, he’s likely to stick with what works: controlling the fight from the top.
Prediction: Rodriguez by decision
2025 ‘X-Factor’ Picks: Standing at 13-8.
