At the start of each Formula 1 season, there’s this familiar saying that pops up. James Vowles, the principal at Williams, recently brought it back into the conversation.
“You really can’t tell who’s leading the pack until the qualifying in Melbourne,” he said.
The point Vowles was making is that during preseason testing, teams are incredibly secretive about their cars’ true capabilities. So much so that it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict which teams have the upper hand until the first race kicks off. This year, that unveiling happens at the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne.
However, there’s a mixed bag of opinions among drivers and team leaders about just how indicative the Australian race is in terms of overall speed compared to races on different tracks.
Christian Horner, who heads up Red Bull, shared his thoughts at the F1 75 Live event in London last month. “Melbourne’s a bit of a wild card,” he suggested. “To really gauge where everyone stands, you’ve got to look at those early flyaway races on various tracks.”
On the flip side, Vowles sees it through a different lens.
He explained at the same event, “There are tracks that stand out as anomalies, like Monaco and Baku. But Melbourne? It typically lines up with what you’d expect the car rankings to be.”
Even though Melbourne can shine a light on which cars are speedier, historically, it’s not the best indicator of which driver or team will ultimately snag the championship.
Take for instance Jenson Button, who clinched both the Melbourne race and the drivers’ championship in 2009. Since then, only about 31% of Melbourne’s victors have gone on to win the title from 2010 to 2024.
In contrast, winners of the Bahrain Grand Prix—another consistent season opener along with Melbourne since 1996—have scooped up the championship about 64% of the time over the past 15 years.
Drivers in Formula 1 have their own ideas about why Melbourne’s top performer doesn’t always walk away with the title.
Pierre Gasly of Alpine pointed out last month, “Those initial weekends are tricky. Everyone’s trying to squeeze out 100% from their setups.”
George Russell from Mercedes added his thoughts at F1 75 Live, noting that when Melbourne’s race came later in the calendar, the lengthy journey to Australia posed an additional challenge for drivers already worn out from earlier races.
“When it’s race three of the season, you’ve already been through quite a bit,” he remarked. “At the beginning, things are a tad calmer, allowing the body to handle it better.”
Moreover, tire degradation often skews Melbourne’s role as a forecaster for future wins. Tires wear out fast in Formula 1, so teams with aerodynamics that minimize this tend to come out on top.
But in Melbourne, the smooth asphalt reduces tire wear for everyone. By the time cars hit a rougher track like Bahrain, which really eats away at tires, teams with wear-reducing designs gain the upper hand.
Australian driver Oscar Piastri from McLaren noted at the team’s season kickoff in England, “Bahrain’s gotten pretty old and rough over the years. It’s likely a more accurate measuring stick.”
He continued, “Every track now seems to have its own vibe. You can’t easily lump them all together.”
Regardless of what data suggests about Melbourne’s correlation to a world championship shot in 2025, Piastri is pumped for it to open the season.
“Aussie fans are going to be buzzing,” he said with enthusiasm. “And everyone’s eager to see who’s got what as we kick off the first race.”
